Axesor otorga un aprobado alto a la deuda soberana de España

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octubre 26, 2018
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EE UU modera ligeramente el crecimiento en el tercer trimestre
octubre 27, 2018

Axesor otorga un aprobado alto a la deuda soberana de España

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La agencia de calificación española se estrena en deuda soberana con un informe en el que otorga una calificación de A a España por la sólida recuperación de la economía Axesor Rating, la agencia española de calificación crediticia, ha estrenado sus exámenes sobre deudas soberanas con España, país al que atribuye un rating de A con perspectiva estable. “La calificación otorgada refleja la elevada diversificación de la economía española y el sólido crecimiento del PIB real, por lo que considera que aún existe recorrido suficiente para continuar liderando el crecimiento de la UE, apoyado sobre todo en la demanda interna, tanto por el mantenimiento del consumo privado como por la reactivación del consumo público”. Entre los riesgos para la economía española sitúa la inestabilidad internacional, la ralentización del ritmo de consolidación fiscal que impide reducir la deuda pública a mayor velocidad. También apunta a la inestabilidad parlamentaria es un obstáculo para aprobar reformas estructurales. Axesor proyecta, sin embargo, que en los próximos meses se producirá una moderación de los ritmos de crecimiento de la economía. Calcula que el PIB crecerá un 2,7% y un 2,4% en 2018 y 2019 respectivamente. La agencia cita la retahíla de riesgos que aparecen en los informes de todas las organizaciones internacionales: “el agotamiento de los principales socios comerciales, las tensiones arancelarias, la apreciación del euro y los riesgos latentes por la situación política en Italia o las crisis que afectan a los países emergentes, especialmente Turquía y Argentina”. Aunque, también, destaca la moderación del turismo por la recuperación de los destinos tradicionales como Egito o Túnez. Axesor recuerda que el sector turístico generó el año pasado cerca del 15% del PIB y del empleo.

La agencia de calificación muestra, sin embargo, las vulnerabilidades de la economía española. Y ahí, sobresale la sostenibilidad de las finanzas públicas, que “continúa amenazando el crecimiento económico, con un déficit estructural estancado y unos niveles de deuda pública que acentúan la vulnerabilidad financiera”. La deuda pública española se mantiene en el entorno del 98% del PIB.

“Se valora positivamente el esfuerzo de consolidación fiscal mostrado hasta la fecha, ya que permitirá la salida del Protocolo de Déficit Excesivo (PDE) en un corto plazo, siendo destacable además la estructura de la deuda. No obstante, se observa con preocupación el cada vez mayor volumen de recursos presupuestarios destinados al servicio de la deuda. En este sentido, la Administración General del Estado destina una tercera parte de los ingresos presupuestarios a satisfacer las amortizaciones programadas de la deuda y la carga financiera asociada, situación que puede verse agravada en un futuro con la materialización del cambio en la política monetaria del BCE”, advierte Axesor.

Junto a esta situación, la agencia también considera que la debilidad gubernamental desde un punto negativo para el crecimiento. “La situación gubernamental continúa siendo una de las principales vulnerabilidades para el crecimiento económico, básicamente por la amenaza que supone para las decisiones de inversión empresarial un Parlamento fragmentado que dificulta la aprobación del Presupuesto y acentúa las posibilidades de convocatoria de elecciones antes de la finalización de la legislatura”.

El informe también resalta el buen comportamiento del mercado laboral durante los últimos años. “No obstante, el paro continúa siendo uno de los principales desafíos de la economía española, sobre todo en lo que se refiere a desempleo juvenil y a parados de larga duración, con una tasa que se mantiene dentro de los rangos más elevados de la UE, tan solo por detrás de Grecia. Esta situación supone un freno al crecimiento potencial de la economía, ya que desincentiva la inversión en capital humano y afecta negativamente a la productividad, haciéndose necesaria la adopción de nuevas medidas que ayuden a paliar el problema del desempleo estructural”, señala.

Otra de las preocupaciones que destaca Axesor tiene que ver con “el agravamiento de la tasa de dependencia, que en 2018 asciende al 53% (30% si consideramos tan solo la población mayor de 65 años), por encima de los niveles precrisis, mientras que la tasa de crecimiento continúa mostrando un saldo vegetativo negativo, con una tasa de mortalidad en ascenso”. Y avisa: “Este mayor envejecimiento de la población pone de manifiesto la necesaria reforma del actual sistema de pensiones (para cuya financiación el Estado dedica una buena parte de sus ingresos

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