EE UU modera ligeramente el crecimiento en el tercer trimestre

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EE UU modera ligeramente el crecimiento en el tercer trimestre

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La solidez de la expansión y la inflación permiten a la Reserva Federal seguir subiendo tipos de una manera gradual

La expansión en Estados Unidos se moderó durante el tercer trimestre a una tasa anualizada del 3,5% (un 0,9% de trimestre a trimestre). Son siete décimas menos que en el segundo pero el ritmo sigue siendo sólido. Se trata de la última instantánea de la economía a once días de las elecciones al Congreso. El dato anticipado está en línea con la proyección de la Reserva Federal, que tiene carta blanca para subir tipos en diciembre pese a la presión política y de los mercados.

El consenso anticipaba una expansión del 3,3% entre julio y septiembre, por lo que esta primera lectura es mejor de lo esperado. Si se mantiene la tendencia actual, la economía se expandirá a un ritmo superior al 3% para el conjunto de 2018. Será el mejor rendimiento desde 2005, gracias en parte al impulso de la reforma fiscal, y estaría dentro del objetivo que se marcó el presidente Donald Trump.

El dato, por tanto, daría algo de munición en la recta final de la campaña electoral a los candidatos republicanos que tratan de preservar sus asientos en el Senado y la Cámara de Representantes. Pero hay indicadores que muestran una moderación. La inversión residencial cayó un 4%.

Las ventas de vivienda a estrenar cayeron en septiembre un 13% respecto a hace un año, reflejo del encarecimiento del coste del dinero y el efecto de los límites a algunas deducciones fiscales.

 

La balanza comercial también hizo de lastre, en el que podría ser un primer reflejo del impacto de la batería de aranceles impuestos por EE UU y la apreciación del dólar. Las exportaciones cayeron un 3,5% en el trimestre mientras que las importaciones subieron un 9,1%. El consumo, sin embargo, creció un 4% en el tercer trimestre, el más alto en casi cuatro años, lo que contribuyó a compensar la debilidad que muestra la inversión empresarial, que creció un anémico 0,8%.

La inflación no parece ser un problema, al moderarse respecto al segundo trimestre. Eso da margen a la Fed. Richard Claridad, que se está estrenado como vicepresidente, considera que la política monetaria sigue apoyando el crecimiento pese a que los tipos de interés estén por encima del 2%. En este sentido, afirma que están aún por debajo de una posición neutral y por eso es partidario de seguir retirando los estímulos de una manera gradual. La última encuesta lo sitúa por encima del 3%.

Como en el caso del Jerome Powell, el nuevo vicepresidente fue nominado por Donald Trump. Los dos consideran que el crecimiento y el empleo son los suficientemente robustos como para justificar la subida, aunque en este momento la marcha de la inflación les da margen. Los riesgos, insisten, están equilibrados. El presidente de EE UU está, sin embargo, criticando la estrategia del banco central.

Trump, en plena campaña por las legislativas del próximo 6 de noviembre, volvía a repetir esta semana que la política monetaria es la principal amenaza para la economía. El republicano la ve también como un factor que está detrás de la volatilidad que acusa Wall Street durante las últimas seis semanas, que también sufre la presión por la batalla comercial, la corrección de las grandes tecnológicas y el alza de costes en compañía industriales.

La próxima reunión de la Fed está prevista para diciembre. Es posible que se decida entonces un nuevo incremento en los tipos de interés, que sería el cuarto en 2018. Lo previsible es que se produzcan tres incrementos más el próximo año aunque hay miembros que indican que podría adoptarse una pausa en el proceso de normalización para analizar la situación cuando se llegue al 2,75%.

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