Los líderes de los índices

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La deuda pública aumenta en el tercer trimestre hasta el 98,3% del PIB
diciembre 14, 2018
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Cae una ‘agencia de viajes’ para inmigrantes que introdujo a 600 personas ilegalmente en 2018
diciembre 17, 2018

Los líderes de los índices

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BlackRock, Vanguard y State Street controlan 80% del dinero que se invierte en los fondos indexados de la Bolsa de Valores en EU. Piense en una industria en la que tres grandes empresas utilizaron la tecnología y las economías de escala para convertirse en oligopolios y ejercer su poder sobre otras empresas. No proviene de Silicon Valley, sino de la costa este de Estados Unidos (EU).  La industria en cuestión es la gestión de inversión pasiva, en la que las computadoras asumen el papel de los stock pickers (los encargados de seleccionar acciones), y el dinero se canaliza hacia los fondos de los índices y a los fondos cotizados en la Bolsa de Valores. Los tres grandes de la industria estadounidense —BlackRock, Vanguard y State Street— alcanzaron tal tamaño y eficiencia que controlan 80% del dinero que se invierte en los fondos indexados en EU.  Incluso a Jack Bogle, fundador de Vanguard y pionero de la industria de fondos indexados de EU le alarma su éxito. Advirtió que “si las tendencias históricas continúan, un pequeño grupo de inversores institucionales gigantes, algún día mantendrán el control de las votaciones de todas las grandes corporaciones estadounidenses”.  Esa es una perspectiva aterradora para la futura relación entre las empresas y sus inversionistas. Los directores ejecutivos, como Paul Polman, el jefe saliente de Unilever, expresan su pesar ante el corto plazo de algunos accionistas y activistas. ¿La vida sería mejor si reportaran a enormes robots? Podría ser más tranquilo. Los inversionistas expresan su disgusto con las empresas mediante la venta de acciones, o armando un escándalo a través de críticas en público o en privado. La primera táctica está prohibida en los fondos indexados: tienen que aferrarse a las acciones de cualquier compañía en un índice, no importa qué tan mal esté funcionando.  Los inversionistas pasivos tienen menos incentivos que los activistas para expresarse y convencer a una compañía para que cambie su estrategia, ya que ninguna inversión tiene un efecto importante en su desempeño. Leo Strine, juez del Tribunal Supremo en Delaware, describe los fondos indexados como “los menos activos en ejercer voz y juicio”.  Las empresas realmente deberían querer que los fondos indexados no se queden en silencio, sino que se expresen. El peor de todo sería una base de accionistas dominada por inversionistas pasivos, donde la mayor parte del ruido lo hacen unos cuantos activistas que exigen soluciones rápidas. Larry Fink, director ejecutivo de BlackRock, publica una carta anual a los directores ejecutivos.  En la misiva de este año, prometió: “Debemos ser agentes activos y comprometidos en nombre de los clientes que invirtieron con BlackRock”. Eso implica contratar más supervisores —BlackRock tiene la intención de duplicar su personal de administración de inversiones en los próximos tres años—, y organizar más conversaciones con los directores ejecutivos. Al igual que con la inversión, los gigantes no son otra cosa que eficientes. Tienen sus propias guías de gobierno y hablan mucho tras bambalinas, siguiendo el lema de Theodore Roosevelt, “Habla en voz suave y lleva un gran garrote”. Como sugirió un estudio holandés, ellos “ejercen el poder estructural…de una manera que está oculta a la vista pública”.  En un estudio de empresas estadounidenses se encontró que obtuvieron mejores resultados que sus pares gracias a un gobierno más estricto, como tener más directores independientes y menos defensas de adquisición. Los grupos de fondos son buenos para frenar el mal comportamiento.  Pero su tamaño y fuerza conducen a dos problemas. En primer lugar, operan a una escala tal que suelen adoptar un enfoque común para todas las empresas. Esto es efectivo para imponer estándares mínimos en asuntos como el sueldo de los ejecutivos, pero no equivale a involucrarse con la estrategia corporativa de la misma manera como lo hacen los inversionistas activistas.  Las empresas podrían dejar una lista para marcar casillas para los inversores pasivos, mientras siguen expuestas a la presión intensa y específica de los activistas que tienen más tiempo.  Fink insiste en que hablar constantemente con los accionistas a largo plazo, como BlackRock, ayudará a las empresas a no ser atormentadas por los que tienen “objetivos más estrechos y de menor plazo”, pero el jurado todavía delibera sobre eso.  En segundo lugar, que tan pocos inversionistas tengan tanto poder sería preocupante incluso si fueran modelos. Simpatizo con la decisión de Vanguard de centrar su atención en los fabricantes estadounidenses de armas y opioides, pero ¿qué sucede si los gigantes se unen contra una industria inocente?  Los académicos antimonopolio se preocupan por la colusión, instituciones con intereses en diferentes compañías en una industria que los alienta a no competir entre sí. La evidencia es mixta pero, a medida que los grupos de fondos se expanden, se fortalece su capacidad para ejercer una influencia invisible sobre las compañías en las que tienen intereses.  Al igual que otras tecnologías, los fondos indexados trajeron grandes beneficios a los inversionistas comunes. Pero la innovación de Bogle, útil como queda, tal vez funciona bien.

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