Previsión de la Fed: Tres escenarios para el crucial gráfico de puntos y otras tres cosas a observar
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marzo 19, 2019Previsión de la Fed: Tres escenarios para el crucial gráfico de puntos y otras tres cosas a observar
- La decisión de la Fed se centra en el gráfico de puntos después de que la Fed prometiera paciencia.
- Los anuncios sobre el balance general, una reacción a los datos de empleo y la inflación también son de interés.
- El dólar estadounidense está preparado para moverse bastante, excepto contra una divisa. La Reserva Federal anuncia su decisión el miércoles 20 de marzo a las 18:00 GMT, junto con las proyecciones económicas actualizadas conocidas como el “gráfico de puntos”. El presidente de la Fed, Jerome Powell, ofrecerá una conferencia de prensa a las 18:30 GMT.
Por qué el gráfico de puntos es importante?
Después de que la Fed prometiera paciencia con las tasas de interés, el foco de atención está en cómo se traduce en las proyecciones actualizadas. La Fed introdujo la “paciencia” en enero, pero las nuevas previsiones se muestran ahora.
La rueda de prensa de Powell es un poco menos importante. Powell realiza una conferencia de prensa después de cada decisión de tasas y hace unas cuantas apariciones en público, por lo que mientras su conferencia de prensa después de la decisión es importante, es probable que los mercados se muevan más por los cambios en las proyecciones de tasas de interés, conocidas como el gráfico de puntos. La última vez que el banco central más poderoso del mundo publicó los pronósticos fue en diciembre de 2018. En ese momento, la Reserva Federal subió la tasa de interés pero redujo las perspectivas para 2019 a solo dos subidas en lugar de tres, en lo que entonces no se consideró lo suficiente como para ser una subida moderada.
Desde entonces, la Fed ha hecho un cambio sustancial, prometiendo paciencia con las subidas de las tasas y también ofreciendo un replanteamiento de su programa de reducción de balance. La desaceleración en China y Europa se ve como un obstáculo, mientras que la economía doméstica está “en un buen lugar”, según los comentarios repetitivos de Powell.
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