Previsión del IPC de EE.UU.: Inflación en estado estable

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Previsión del IPC de EE.UU.: Inflación en estado estable

core cpi apr 9-636904220414738519
  • El IPC subyacente se mantendrá sin cambios en marzo.
  • Se espera que la inflación general de los consumidores aumente.
  • La Reserva Federal mantendrá las preocupaciones sobre los precios en un segundo plano.

La Oficina de Estadísticas Laborales publicará el índice de precios al consumidor de marzo el miércoles 10 de abril a las 12:30 GMT.

Se espera que la inflación subyacente anual se mantendrá sin cambios en el 2.1% en marzo, mientras que el cambio mensual se moverá al 0.2% desde el 0.1% de febrero. La inflación general de los consumidores aumentará al 1.8% interanual, desde el 1.5%, mientras que la variación mensual subirá al 0.3% desde el 0.2%.

La inflación y la Reserva Federal

Uno de los grandes éxitos de la política monetaria del banco central en la última generación ha sido la moderación de la inflación. Desde el máximo del 12% en EE.UU. a principios de la década de 1980, las expectativas inflacionarias en la economía general han disminuido tanto que cualquier reducción seria de la demanda hace que la Fed se preocupe de que la inflación sea demasiado baja. La política de tasas, a lo largo de la década desde la crisis financiera y la recesión, ha tenido el objetivo establecido de elevar la inflación al objetivo del 2% de la Fed.

La última proyección de la Fed para la economía de los Estados Unidos, publicada en la reunión del 20 de marzo del FOMC, redujo la estimación del índice de precios de consumo personal (PCE) para 2019 al 1.8% desde el 1.9% y mantuvo estable a PCE subyacente en el 2%. Esto está de acuerdo con las expectativas del IPC, que tiende a ser un poco más fuerte que la cifra del PCE preferida por la Fed.

El cambio en la política de tasas de la Fed, de ajuste de tasas a neutral, que empezó con el material revisado de diciembre, donde redujo la inflación, el crecimiento económico y las proyecciones de tasas por primera vez en dos años, se ha convertido en el estándar del mercado. Los futuros de los Fondos de la Fed ahora muestran la probabilidad de un recorte de tasas en la reunión del FOMC del 11 de diciembre del 51.2%, frente al 48.8% de probabilidades que las tasas se mantendrán sin cambios en el límite superior actual del 2.5%.

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