Previsión EUR/USD: Subiendo por el acuerdo con Italia pero los moderados todavía pueden sufrir

japanese-10000-yen-and-100-dollar-bills-14367199_XtraSmall
USD/JPY se recupera modestamente hacia 112.50
diciembre 18, 2018
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EUR/USD alcanza máximos semanales cerca de 1.1450 antes de la decisión de la Fed
diciembre 19, 2018

Previsión EUR/USD: Subiendo por el acuerdo con Italia pero los moderados todavía pueden sufrir

El EUR/USD extiende sus ganancias tras las noticias de que Italia no será castigada.                                                                                                                                                                                     Las esperanzas de una subida moderada de la Fed también ayudan.La perspectiva técnica se ha vuelto positiva para el par.

El par EUR/USD está moviéndose por encima del nivel de 1.1400, alcanzando los niveles más altos en una semana. No es común ver subidas significativas antes de la decisión de la Fed, pero esta vez es diferente.

El euro disfruta de un desarrollo sustancial. Radiocor informa que la Comisión Europea no iniciará un procedimiento disciplinario contra Italia. El último presupuesto de la tercera economía más grande de la eurozona ya contenía concesiones significativas hacia Bruselas. El comisario de la UE, Valdis Dombrovskis, confirmó que se ha llegado a un acuerdo para evitar un procedimiento por el déficit excesivo.

La confrontación ha pesado sobre la moneda común durante mucho tiempo, y ahora le permite moverse al alza. El diferencial entre los bonos a 10 años entre Italia y Alemania ha caído por debajo de los 260 puntos básicos, lo que indica un reconocimiento por parte de los mercados.

La segunda razón para la subida del par es más especulativa y puede ser prematura. Los mercados parecen creer que la Reserva Federal ofrecerá una “subida moderada”. Con el presidente Jerome Powell y compañía subiendo las tasas en diciembre pero recortando el pronóstico de tres subidas en 2019. Las expectativas se basan en una desaceleración económica, pero pueden haber ido demasiado lejos.

En septiembre, el gráfico de puntos de la Fed mostró tres subidas en 2019, mientras que los mercados de bonos apuntan a que no habrá cambios el próximo año. Las bajas expectativas pesan sobre el dólar estadounidense. El resultado puede ser algo medio. Una pequeña rebaja a dos subidas en 2019 podría hacer llorar a los moderados y enviar al dólar estadounidense al alza. Una rebaja a una subida en 2019 ya sería una auténtica subida moderada.

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