Pronóstico USD/JPY: ¿Hacia dónde romperá el par? El consumidor estadounidense es clave

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Pronóstico USD/JPY: ¿Hacia dónde romperá el par? El consumidor estadounidense es clave

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  • El USD/JPY se mantiene en un rango estrecho, en medio de datos débiles pero un Powell optimista.
  • La publicación de las ventas minoristas de Estados Unidos, la confianza del consumidor y la inflación destacan la próxima semana.
  • La perspectiva técnica está equilibrada para el par.

Resumen de la semana: Datos decepcionantes, Powell y Trump

Los datos macroeconómicos de Estados Unidos en su mayoría no cumplieron con las expectativas. El PMI no manufacturero de ISM cayó a 56.7 puntos, por debajo de las expectativas y va en contra del movimiento observado en el sector manufacturero. Sin embargo, la cifra refleja un crecimiento sólido. Las solicitudes de desempleo se situaron en 234.000, por debajo de la semana anterior pero todavía por encima de los promedios.

El presidente Donald Trump pronunció su discurso sobre el Estado de la Unión y no ofreció ninguna noticia conmovedora sobre los programas económicos. Estaba contento con el estado de la economía de los Estados Unidos y optimista sobre un acuerdo comercial con China. Trump confirmó una segunda cumbre con el líder norcoreano Kim Jong-un a finales de mes.

Donald Trump no se reunirá con el presidente chino, Xi Jinping, antes de que termine el plazo para concluir las negociaciones comerciales a principios de marzo. La noticia pesó sobre el ánimo del mercado. Estados Unidos tiene la intención de golpear a China con nuevos aranceles si las negociaciones no terminan en un acuerdo.

Más importante aún, el presidente de la Fed, Jerome Powell, con quien Trump se reunió a principios de semana, se mostró optimista con respecto a la economía. Dijo que la economía estadounidense está “en un buen lugar”. Si bien la pausa en las subidas de tasas permanece intacta, el tono optimista ayudó al dólar estadounidense a pesar de los datos poco inspiradores.

Los datos japoneses se alinearon con las expectativas y dejaron el escenario a los desarrollos globales. Y mientras China celebraba el Año Nuevo, hubo un flujo de rebajas en las previsiones económicas en el Reino Unido y en Europa. El menor crecimiento económico se atribuyó parcialmente a China y, en el caso del Reino Unido, también al Brexit.

La creciente narrativa de una desaceleración global favoreció al yen japonés de refugio seguro. Con todo, la imagen se mantuvo equilibrada para el par.

Eventos en Estados Unidos: El consumidor estadounidense  y tal vez otro cierre del Gobierno            

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